In-depth analysisEnergy and climate

Falling emissions: decarbonisation or deindustrialisation?

A third less territorial emissions since 1990: how much comes from the energy mix, efficiency, industrial decline, imports?

Version 2026.1 · Public data frozen on 30 September 2026 · 5 catalogue series · Lire cette analyse en français

The question

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions released on French territory — excluding carbon sinks from forests and soils, excluding international transport — went from 547 Mt CO₂e in 1990 to 367 Mt CO₂e in 2024, according to the national inventory compiled by the Centre interprofessionnel technique d'études de la pollution atmosphérique (CITEPA) and taken up by Eurostat: −32.9%. Over the same period, gross domestic product (GDP) in volume grew by +67.7%.

A one-third fall in an economy that grew by two thirds: that is decoupling. This page's question is its composition. How much comes from low-carbon electricity, how much from efficiency, how much from industrial decline — and how much was simply displaced to the countries that make what France imports?

What the data show

The fall is not steady. From 1990 to 2005, emissions stagnate: +1.6% in fifteen years, with a peak at 573 Mt CO₂e in 1991, while GDP grows by +35.4%. The decline begins in 2006 and accelerates: −33.9% between 2005 and 2024. Over the last decade alone, from 2014 to 2024, it reaches −19.8%, for growth of +13.2%.

Relative to GDP — a France ÉcoScan calculation, the emissions index divided by the GDP-in-volume index reconstructed from annual growth rates — emissions per unit of output fell by −60.0% between 1990 and 2024. That is the simplest measure of decoupling: producing one euro of wealth now emits about forty per cent of what it emitted in 1990.

The carbon footprint — emissions associated with French consumption, imports included and exports deducted — is estimated by the Service des données et études statistiques (SDES) at 563 Mt CO₂e in 2024, or 8.2 tonnes per inhabitant against 12.1 in 1990. It has fallen by −20.0% since 1990, markedly less than territorial emissions: imported emissions, 50% of the footprint in 2024, rose by +2.0% over the period while the domestic component fell by −34.0%.

Chart 1 of 1 · million tonnes CO₂ equivalent · Period 1990-2024

Territorial greenhouse gas emissions since 1990

Since when have emissions been falling, and how fast?

Reading

0100200300400500600199019941998200220062010201420182024
  • Territorial emissions (excl. sinks, excl. bunkers)

What to see

  • A plateau from 1990 to 2005, then a steady slope, with two steps in 2009 and 2020.
  • The low point is 2024, below the lockdown year.

What this does not mean

  • These are not the emissions of French consumption: the carbon footprint, imports included, is about half again as high.

Limits · National inventory (CITEPA) via Eurostat, excluding land use and forestry, excluding international transport; 2024 latest vintage. Source · Eurostat — Greenhouse gas emissions by source sector (env_air_gge)

What has changed

What has changed since 2014 is that the fall in emissions has continued without industrial decline. Industry's share of GDP was 12.2% in 2014 and 12.5% in 2024 (+0.3 point): stable, apart from the 2023 series break. Meanwhile, emissions fell by −19.8%. Deindustrialisation cannot explain a fall that occurred after it had stopped.

The 2022-2023 energy shock added a price effect: with business electricity going from €83.0/MWh in 2021 to €230.7/MWh in 2023, emissions fell by −10.5% in two years — forced restraint, production halts in the most intensive sectors, a mild winter. The year 2024 extends the fall (−3.0%) with prices back down: part of the effect is therefore structural.

The visible relationships

What cannot be claimed

This page carries neither emissions by sector (transport, buildings, industry, agriculture, energy), nor the power mix, nor energy consumption: it therefore cannot attribute the fall to a precise factor. The CITEPA inventory publishes them; they are not served here.

The carbon footprint is an estimate, revised each year — the 2023 figure was brought down from more than six hundred to 583 Mt CO₂e between two publications — and its split between domestic component and imports depends on international trade models. The orders of magnitude are robust; the decimals are not.

Finally, industry's share of GDP is a measure in value, affected by relative prices and by the 2023 break; its stability since 2014 does not guarantee stable industrial output in volume.

The events that shed light on the path

Where we stand today

In 2024, territorial emissions stand at 367 Mt CO₂e (−32.9% since 1990), the carbon footprint is estimated at 563 Mt CO₂e (−20.0% since 1990), industry's share at 12.5%. The latest inventory vintage is 2024; the 2025 one will be submitted in 2027.

What the reader can take away

The fall in French emissions is first of all decarbonisation: it mostly happened after 2005, with a stable industrial share, and the carbon footprint fell too. Deindustrialisation contributed — cars are the clearest case — but it had already happened when emissions began to fall.

What the reader can keep: the one-third cut in emissions is real, and only about half of it shows up in the footprint, because France now consumes abroad nearly three quarters of the carbon it emits at home. An account gives access to the full cross-reading — two decouplings, cars, the footprint against the inventory, the chronology — and to what each factor can or cannot explain.

Sources and method

Every figure on this page is read from an identified public series, or computed from it according to the stated rule. The series are those of France ÉcoScan's catalogue, checked against their producer and frozen on the date given at the top of the page.

  • GHG Emissions — Eurostat — Greenhouse gas emissions by source sector (env_air_gge) · ec.europa.eu
  • Industry Share of GDP (%) — INSEE — annual national accounts, base 2020 · www.insee.fr
  • GDP Growth (%) — INSEE — annual national accounts, base 2020 · www.insee.fr
  • Car production (volume index) — Eurostat — Production in industry, annual data (sts_inpr_a) · ec.europa.eu
  • Electricity price, businesses — Eurostat — Electricity prices for non-household consumers (nrg_pc_205) · ec.europa.eu

Editorial evidence

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